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I am sick with a nasty cold today - I cannot talk above a whisper right now, so it’s a good thing I’m not into video blogging or this would be a painful entry to make! But because I was sick, I stayed home from work and scoured the Internet for any information about the New Hampshire primary that I could find.  As the results began to come in, and it began to be obvious that McCain had won, I was very nervous.  His lead varied anywhere from 8% ahead of Mitt, to 10% ahead of Mitt.  Every time I refreshed the page and I would see a 10% lead, my heart would jump into my throat.  “Please don’t stay there!  Please!” I chanted outloud.

But eventually, the numbers started to creep up.  8% behind, then 7%.  Back to 8%, but then up to 6%.  Then, blessed saints, up to 5%!!!  Then back down to 7%.

I felt like I was on a very wild rollercoaster ride.  Mitt Romney had long past congratulated John McCain on his win, and I was still stuck on the ABC page, refreshing.  I just didn’t want to see a 10% win over Mitt.  That would have been painful.

Well, we’re up to 88% of the precincts reporting, and the number has been holding steady for quite a while: 5% lead.  McCain won by a mere 5%.  The National Review Online (NRO) agrees with me: That number is rather underwhelming.  Why?  After all, a win is a win, right?  Well, yes, that’s true, but the margin also matters.  This really should have been an easy win for McCain, and here’s why:

1) This is McCain’s home turf.  He won here in 2000.  He had supporters who had worked for his campaign previously, and so he had a ready-made network, out there again, working to elect their guy.

2) He also attracts a lot of Independents, and considering this state has a 40% Independent faction, that should have been huge.  The media had played up Obama’s inevitability in winning (double-digit leads, Clinton has already said she won’t win, it’s Obamania here!, etc etc) and so many of the Independents swung towards McCain - why not vote for the guy who needs their vote, as opposed to the guy who is already going to win?

3) McCain attracts the Liberal vote (check out CNN’s exit polling for even more goodies) and New Hampshire is much more liberal than it used to be, with outsiders flooding in to take advantage of lower taxes, etc.

This was a state tailor-made for McCain.  And yet he still only won by 5%?

If I were a McCainiate, I wouldn’t be celebrating just yet.  It rather reminds me of another early state, with another candidate winning a state that was tailor-made for him.  Hmmm….

Havs

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