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I wrote up a post welcoming FredHeads to Mitt Romney, and a Fred supporter responded saying that they believed Mitt was now the only conservative left in the race, so they were getting behind him.
As I read that, I wondered: What if the situations had been reversed? What if Mitt Romney had bitten the dust, and Fred Thompson had stayed in? Would MittHeads done a mass migration to the Fred Thompson camp?
Yes. I believe a very large portion of the MittHeads would have become FredHeads with very little debate on the subject.
For me, Fred Thompson always played back up to Mitt Romney. He was my second-choice candidate, the one I’d vote for if Mitt Romney didn’t make it. I believe that the two candidates had the most in common in terms of ideology, and that although neither camp would be as excited about the other candidate as they were about their original choice, they would, for the most part, still cross over in the case of a drop out.
And in this go around, it just so happens that Fred Thompson dropped out, and Mitt Romney is doing well. *Crossing fingers he actually wins Florida!!!* But I think it’s a consolation to FredHeads that, had the situations been reversed, MittHeads would have supported Fred. Not nearly as good as still having Fred in the race, obviously, but still a small consolation nonetheless.
So the question remains: Who is my second-choice candidate now? I think Huckabee’s tactics have been underhanded and slimy, and I think McCain’s betrayal of the Republican party and the conservative movement in general is too large to be overlooked. Ron Paul, heaven bless him, is simply not gaining traction (although I’ll admit that my libertarian streak really enjoyed listening to him last night) which leaves me with Giuliani. Rudy bothers me because of his pro-abortion stance and because of his cross-dressing, mistress-keeping days. On the other hand, there is something genuinely likeable about the man, and I enjoyed listening to him last night as well. Not to mention that I am big on conservatism in the economy (tax slashing is always welcome!) which he has a great record for. And since he has at least promised to appoint judges that are pro-life, I suppose I would have to say that he’s just become my second choice candidate.
Unless he really does pull off a Giant’s come-from-behind win in Florida though, he’ll probably be out by next weekend. My best guess is that this race is going to come down between McCain and Romney. The chances of Huckabee winning at this point is almost the same as Fred Thompson winning from write-in votes, as some die-hard Thompson fans have proposed. Sure, it’s there, but I would bet on lightning striking in the same place twice just as a million dollars comes rising up out of the ground in unmarked $100 bills, first.
The real question becomes, when Giuliani drops out, where does his base migrate to? It’s safe to assume that Huckabee’s base will most likely migrate to McCain, and I’m willing to bet that Paul’s base will most likely migrate to Mitt when he drops out, because as I said before, if Ron Paul supporters don’t like Mitt’s stance on the war, they are absolutely going to detest McCain’s. Not to mention that McCain has this grand idea to get into the whole global warming debate by adding on yet more taxes. (Note: Democrats solve all problems by adding on more taxes. McCain wants to solve the global warming “problem” by adding on more taxes. Therefore, McCain is more Democrat than Republican. As proof, McCain was endorsed by The New York Times. I rest my case.)
Back to Giuliani: I happen to think that Giuliani’s base will migrate to Mitt’s camp, for the most part, because many of Giuliani’s supporters liked him because of his conservative economic record. And if economy is your main concern, ain’t no one better than Mitt. 
Havs
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9:13 pm on January 25th, 2008 1
I found your site on technorati and read a few of your other posts. Keep up the good work. I just added your RSS feed to my Google News Reader. Looking forward to reading more from you.
Mike Harmon
10:51 pm on January 25th, 2008 2
I am a Fredhead.. and I thank you for the article, and yes you got it right.. great article. I sure wish Mitt would ask Fred to be his VP. Many of us do, Mitt is a good man but he is not a federalist which Fred is. But lately he has been talking about keeping to the states what belongs to the states. If he keeps that up, he will win all the Fredheads. For we followed Fred 1st for his Honesty, and 2nd for his true conservatism, and 3rd for his being a Federalist. I hope Romney can listen to Fred’s words and learn from them, and keep them in his life as Fred has done. And yes I feel Mitt is similar to Fred in many ways. Just keep this country government small not big and Mitt will be a winner. Good luck to Mitt and all Mitt supporters, I am rooting for you, and I will back you come the general if Mitt gets the nod. Sorry I already voted for Fred in Nevada. But I would love to see Mitt win if Fred can not. God bless all of you.
ps I know my fellow fredheads, and no liberal candidate in a republican suit will get our support. So the only one that is a good conservative besides Fred is Mitt. You can take that to the bank.
10:55 pm on January 25th, 2008 3
and ps again, RP sorry to say is not a good candidate. We fredheads will not back RP. So no worries about him, OK?! OK
12:46 am on January 26th, 2008 4
Hava said:
“Ron Paul, heaven bless him, is simply not gaining traction (although I’ll admit that my libertarian streak really enjoyed listening to him last night)…”
—–
Hi Hava. Respectfully, I really have no idea if you lack the spirirt, mind, conviction, and/or fortitude required to be a leader, rather than a follower — or if you are simply uninformed (which would be quite understandable, due to a seemingly coordinated lack of coverage) — but Congressman Paul is, indeed, gaining traction.
Since you are blogging, I should assume you are well informed. But just in case, do you know where Congressman Paul placed in the Nevada and Louisiana Caucuses? (and doing that well — “only that well” but that well — in a world that won’t even report on it like they would have had it been any of the other four candidates?)
Are you considering the likelihood of a long race to a brokered convention? Wherein Ron Paul has a consistent and growing base of support in each state? Do you know he continues to bring in new volunteers and small donors — while The Huckster and the The Rude One are essentially broke?
Have you heard about the Ron Paul NASCAR? And do you think that sort of thing will insignificant? Really? Do you think the full page ads that guy paid tens of thousands of dollars for in USA Today were insignificant? How about the blimp? I thought each one didn’t matter much — but then tell that to the candidates who have placed under The Insignificant Dr. No in recent contests.
Tell it to all the supporters who have had the spirit, mind, conviction, and fortitude to head out and make him actually do better and place higher — even in the face of an apparent “lack of traction”.
Granted, if the race is somehow over on Super-Duper-Tuesday, then Paul’s bid for the Republican nomination is over, period. But if it’s not, then all the insignificant pieces you’ve seen of the Ron Paul movement are just the tip of an iceburg. Put them together and look ahead and this is just a beginning.
I’m not saying we can do it without you. Or “you”. The future rests on whether people like you — and Senator McClintock ( http://latimesblogs.latimes.co.....thomp.html ) — turn out to be leaders, or followers.
All I can ask is that you do your best.
Thanks for the post,
Yabooyah.
2:57 am on January 26th, 2008 5
Hi again Hava.
After commenting, I read your post titled “Why I Choose Mitt Romney Over Ron Paul” so I have a better sense of your history and position on Ron.
That’s why I thought of you when I came upon this more sullen (realistic?) view of his prospects from a supporter named fmontez at the RP Forums: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/s.....p?t=101810
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChoicestHops
exactly what HQ’s goals are.
HQ’s goal is to hang in until the convention. That’s about it, keep Dr. Paul speaking in all the debates.
(1) To the OP, this forum is not representative of RPs supporters in the real world; mostly you will find hard core supporters here, Fringers/Truthers that believe that Compromise and Strategy are a sell out.
(2) From the real world perspective (at least in MN) the goal is to get as many delegates as possible. Figure RP can pull down 4 to 15% in each State; he should be able to keep up enough fund raising to at least have some presence in every State until the convention. It is unlikely that he will win, but there is always a chance, a long shot like a brokered convention.
(3) If he loses the nomination RP supporters have to make a choice, support the GOP candidate, or write in Ron Paul. I envision RP endorsing a candidate in exchange for renewed GOP emphasis on the Constitution.
(4) I look at it as two possible ways for the movement to have a victory. A Ron Paul nomination OR a more Constitutional GOP. My personal opinion, Ron Paul will not get the GOP nomination.
(5) Ron Paul has made it clear he will not run 3rd Party, but if he fails to endorse a GOP candidate that would be a blow to the USA, and probably lead to a Marxist President for the next 8 years (and the utter end of the Constitution FOREVER!) <—- Hint, that is why I expect an endorsement.
—————————-
We all have different ideas about what is the best course and I disagree with fmontez (and you) that RP definitely won’t run third party if it becomes clear that the republican party has completely abandoned him and it’s true values. (He always answers, “I have no ‘intention’ of doing that”. — Because currently, he ‘intends’ to win the GOP nom.) But fmontez makes an interesting case for why defenders of the constitution must continue their support, regardless of his chances to actually win.
So, on my way back to say, “see Hava, you should support him to promote your positions and either, surprise, he wins or, yeay, we influence whichever of the other monsters gets the nom. But then I realized that that nom could be Ol’ Hunderd Years McCain, who is at least marginally more monstrous than the other three. And as hard as it is for me to stomach Mitt, I do see that he is likely the least hazardous of the four GOP mediadates.
So, I get what you’re doing. I’m not sure it’s right; we might end up with a McCain ticket WITHOUT influence from the Paul wing and it’ll be whoooaa Betty, start up the bombers! But as confusing as these decisions are, I think I do understand what you’re trying to do. And it might have merit… But it might not… But it might….
I’m voting for Ron even if I have to write him in. You do what you do. Maybe it’ll all work out.
May all our Gods help us all.
Good luck, everyone.
Namaste’
6:16 am on January 27th, 2008 6
Thanks for another insightful piece Havs, I just wanted to add a link to help Mitt’s folks understand where / why the FredHeads where, & why they are here with Mitt now if you check out the issues & whitepapers it will give you a great prospective of the whys, there is a lot of info that has a very common theme.
http://www.fred08.com/Principl.....mmary.aspx
I also hope that folks are doing what they can to welcome Duncan’s supporters over as well ?he was a very conservative candidate & I am sure they are checking out Mitt as well!!
Thanks for being so welcoming to us new arrivals. Now lets get working and get Mitt the Job!! Thanks
12:00 pm on January 27th, 2008 7
Love the post, Hav. I’ve been looking around at the other candidates wondering who my backup choices would be for a while, and it suprises me that they’ve changed over time. First of all, I’m pretty moderate, so I’m not married to whatever candidate has the most conservative position. For that reason McCain was a possible backup choice for me until recently. But, as is often the case in politics, when you pay attention close enough and long enough to get past the media filter, things change. And theres NO WAY I would support McCain now. Huckabee seemed like a good choice for about 5 seconds (until he kept talking). Giuliani is a man with personal failings whose leadership and public service abilites I respect, so I think he’s my current backup choice. Thompson could have edged him out, but that’s moot now that he’s gone. And Ron Paul? Honestly? I haven’t been able to take him seriously because of his supporters. That’s just a fact. If his supporters didn’t act so rudely at straw polls, sabotage web sites, fix online surveys, and generally show a disregard for common decency and public forums… well, I think that reflects poorly enough on the candidate that I haven’t looked too closely.
2:11 am on March 4th, 2008 8
turns out that there will be no 3rd party run, and people like fmo ntez were right afterall. some people are just better/smarter about real world politics than others.